How We Calculate These Numbers

The ILO unemployment rate — the headline figure most governments report — counts only people who are without work, actively searching, and available to start within two weeks. We treat this as a starting point, not the full picture. To estimate true labour market exclusion, we add: registered unemployment, working-age recipients of long-term disability and incapacity benefits (e.g. uføretrygd, WIA, sjukersättning, førtidspension), working-age recipients of means-tested social assistance, and — where national statistics allow — people on transitional or work-assessment benefits (e.g. AAP, WGA, activity compensation). We exclude retirees, students, and full-time carers unless national data specifically flags them as work-capable and benefit-dependent. Every underlying figure is drawn from the national statistics agency or labour and welfare administration named in each report's Sources section — never from InkludX's own estimates alone.

Our fiscal cost estimates have two components. First, direct benefit expenditure: annual public spending on disability, incapacity, and related working-age benefits, drawn from the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX) incapacity category and cross-checked against national agency annual reports (NAV, UWV, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Försäkringskassan, STAR and Finansministeriet). Second, estimated lost tax revenue: the number of excluded working-age adults, multiplied by median national earnings, multiplied by the effective income tax and social contribution rate from OECD Taxing Wages — a deliberately conservative estimate. We sum these two components to produce a total fiscal cost, expressed in EUR at 2024 average exchange rates and as a share of GDP. We do not include healthcare costs, social care costs, or foregone productivity growth attributable to exclusion — the true fiscal cost is therefore understated, not overstated, by our figures.

Every InkludX Economics report cites named, publicly verifiable sources: peer-reviewed research, government statistics agencies, national audit offices, and randomised controlled trials where they exist. We name the specific study, agency, and year for every statistic — not just a general reference. Where evidence is contested or uncertain, we say so in the text rather than presenting a single number as settled fact. Reports are published in English first and translated into InkludX's other eight languages; the English version is the authoritative one if a translation is ever in doubt.