Fiscal Case(3)
All pieces →June report 2026 – Development of laws and funds UWV 2026–2027
Original title: Juninota 2026 – Ontwikkeling wetten en fondsen UWV 2026–2027
UWV's mid-year financial forecast for Dutch social insurance (June 2026). Spending on disability benefits is projected to rise from €18.9 billion in 2025 to €20.4 billion in 2026 and €22.0 billion in 2027, driven mainly by more WIA benefits. WIA claims are expected to grow, largely due to mental health conditions; WIA inflow among people with mental health complaints has risen three years in a row.
Work on the WIA – towards a system that works again
Original title: Werk aan de WIA – naar een stelsel dat weer werkt
Interdepartmental policy review (IBO) of the Dutch WIA disability insurance by several ministries, UWV, CPB and SCP (Dec 2025). Over 60,000 people now enter the WIA each year versus about 35,000 when it was introduced; 600,000 receive a benefit, over 40% of inflow is linked to mental disorders, and UWV backlogs could reach almost 200,000 by 2030 without reform.
Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and return on investment of individual placement and support compared with traditional vocational rehabilitation for individuals with severe mental illness in the Netherlands: a nationwide implementation study
Dutch nationwide study (Vukadin et al., BMJ Public Health, 2024) using administrative data on people with severe mental illness receiving sickness or disability benefits in 2012–2019, matching 863 IPS participants with 16,466 in traditional vocational rehabilitation. IPS raised the chance of competitive work (12+ hours a week) by 3.7–7.5 percentage points and was on average cost saving for society and the benefit payer, with wide uncertainty.
Business Case(4)
All pieces →Do Stronger Employer Responsibilities Enhance Work Accommodation for Sick-Listed Workers? Evidence From a Dutch Reform
Peer-reviewed study in Health Economics (2025) by Jansen, Angelini, Groneck and van Ooijen, evaluating a Dutch reform that shifted more sick-leave and disability-insurance costs onto employers (experience rating). Using survey data on long-term sick-listed workers, it finds no significant effect on employers' workplace accommodation efforts; instead more firms chose to self-arrange benefits and reintegration for non-permanent workers.
Employers Survey on Work 2024: Results at a glance
Original title: Werkgevers Enquête Arbeid 2024: Resultaten in vogelvlucht
TNO's biennial Employers Survey on Work (2024): 6,150 Dutch employers, weighted to be representative. 12% of employers employ people with a vulnerable labour-market position, most often people with psychological vulnerability (38%) or a physical or (mild) intellectual disability (33%). Among employers with 25+ staff, 40% have a diversity and inclusion vision, but only 15% target equal-opportunity actions at people with work disabilities.
Implemented disability-related policies and practices and sustained employment of partially disabled employees: evidence from linked survey and register data
Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health (2024) study by van Ooijen, Koning, Boot and Brouwer linking an employer survey to Dutch register data on 6103 partially disabled employees at 366 employers. Employer prevention policies (OR 2.3), occupational health services (OR 1.9) and sick-leave policies (OR 1.8) were associated with staying in work a year on, mainly in larger and private firms. Associations, not causal effects.
Job sustainability under the 2021–2022 jobs agreement
Original title: Duurzaamheid van werk binnen de banenafspraak 2021–2022
UWV analysis (2023) for the Dutch social affairs ministry, using register and payroll data, on job retention under the 'banenafspraak' employer job agreement for people with work disabilities. Of 126,734 people working in Q3 2021, 88% were still working a year later and 71% were in the same job. Of about 7,200 people starting a new job, 67% were still working a year later; average employment-relationship duration was 5.3 years.
Social Return on Investment(2)
All pieces →More than work alone. A feasibility study into measuring broad benefits and costs of participation policy
Original title: Meer dan werk alleen. Een haalbaarheidsstudie naar het meten van brede baten en kosten van participatiebeleid
Feasibility study by SEO Economisch Onderzoek and VU Amsterdam for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs (October 2024) on full social cost-benefit analyses (MKBA) of participation instruments such as wage-cost subsidy, sheltered work and basic jobs. Labour-market effects are fairly well studied, broad effects and costs are not, so a full MKBA looks feasible only for intensive client contact and training.
MKBA Wage-cost Subsidy
Original title: MKBA Loonkostensubsidie
Social cost-benefit analysis (MKBA) by Berenschot for Cedris and Divosa (2024) of Dutch wage-cost subsidies. Its modelled base case puts net social benefit per person moved from benefits into work at €2,383 in sheltered work, €5,898 at a social development company and €12,603 with a regular employer; 40,000 placements yield about €397m a year. Drivers: benefit savings, care costs, quality of life.
Labour Market(1)
All pieces →Policy & Incentives(1)
All pieces →Cost of Exclusion(2)
All pieces →Costs of mental disorders (NEMESIS – highlighted)
Original title: Kosten van psychische aandoeningen (NEMESIS – uitgelicht)
Trimbos Institute estimates from the NEMESIS-3 population study (2019–2022): mood, anxiety and substance-use disorders and ADHD cost on average €5,630 extra per person a year, about €18.8 billion for Dutch adults aged 18–75 in 2022. Costs include care, travel and lost productivity; productivity loss (sick leave and reduced performance at work) makes up 61–85% depending on the disorder.
Arbobalans: costs of work-related sickness absence continue to rise, over half due to psychosocial work stress
Original title: Arbobalans: kosten werkgerelateerd ziekteverzuim blijven stijgen, ruim helft psychosociale arbeidsbelasting
TNO's four-yearly Arbobalans (2015–2023) finds employers' wage-continuation costs for (partly) work-related sickness absence rose from €5.1 billion in 2015 to €8.3 billion in 2023, of which €4.9 billion was due to psychosocial workload. Absence for psychological complaints or burnout lasts longest, about 63 working days on average.