Fiscal Case(4)
All pieces →Preparing for long-term challenges: OECD Economic Surveys: Norway 2026
Chapter 1 of the OECD Economic Survey of Norway (June 2026) singles out the sickness and disability benefit system as a major fiscal pressure: it makes up around 22% of total public spending, or more than 8% of mainland GDP. The OECD urges comprehensive reform and estimates the gains from cutting disability benefit recipients from 14% to 10% of the working-age population and sickness absence from about 27 to 18 days per full-time employee a year.
Area review of health-related benefits in the National Insurance Scheme: Part report 1 – Mapping and summary of knowledge
Original title: Områdegjennomgang av helserelaterte ytelser i folketrygden: Delrapport 1 – Kartlegging og oppsummering av kunnskap
Government spending review of sickness benefit, work assessment allowance (AAP) and disability benefit, by Oslo Economics, the Frisch Centre and OsloMet for Norway's finance and labour ministries (June 2025). The 2025 state budget set aside NOK 255 billion for these benefits; Norway spends almost four times the OECD average as a share of mainland GDP. It names ten barriers that keep benefit use higher than necessary.
Cost–benefit of IAPT Norway and effects on work-related outcomes and health care utilization: results from a randomized controlled trial using registry-based data
Randomised trial of Norway's Prompt Mental Health Care (IAPT Norway) for anxiety and depression, linked to registers up to five years later (Smith et al., Psychological Medicine, 2025). Participants were more likely to be in regular work without welfare benefits in 2019–2022; the benefit–cost ratio was estimated at 5.26, but the difference in public sector spending was small (about NOK 16,050 lower per person, with wide uncertainty).
Trends in the National Insurance Scheme 2013–2033 (Nav Report No. 1, 2025)
Original title: Utviklingstrekk i folketrygden 2013–2033 (Nav-rapport nr. 1, 2025)
Nav and the Directorate of Health break down National Insurance spending growth and project it forward (March 2025). Spending on sickness benefit, AAP and disability benefit rose from NOK 219 billion in 2013 to 243 billion in 2023 (2025 kroner) and is expected to reach 262 billion by 2033. Of the 2023–2033 rise, 9.8 billion is due to population change alone.
Business Case(1)
All pieces →Social Return on Investment(2)
All pieces →Estimating Return on Investment From Implementation of Individual Placement and Support
Peer-reviewed study in Psychiatric Services (Park, McDaid, Mykletun et al., 2026; LSE and Nordland Hospital Trust) modelling the return on adding IPS for 561 young Norwegian recipients of a health-related benefit. A 4-year Markov model estimates an ROI of 4.76 from a societal and 1.34 from a public-purse perspective; ROI stays positive unless the benefit level were 24% lower.
Effects of labour market measures. Do labour market measures contribute to strengthening participants' attachment to working life?
Original title: Effekter av arbeidsmarkedstiltak. Bidrar arbeidsmarkedstiltak til å styrke deltakernes tilknytning til arbeidslivet?
Register-based evaluation by Oslo Economics and the Frisch Centre for Norway's labour ministry (April 2024), with a simplified social cost-benefit analysis of NAV measures. Most show net social benefit; temporary wage subsidy leads with about NOK 1,117,000 net priced effects per spell, while work-preparatory training (AFT) and work-oriented rehabilitation are negative. Effects are assumed to last 7 years.
Labour Market(1)
All pieces →Policy & Incentives(2)
All pieces →Introduction of upper limit for uføretrygd and child supplement. Effect on number of new disability benefit recipients and work participation
Original title: Innføring av øvre grense for uføretrygd og barnetillegg. Effekt på antall nye uføre og arbeidsdeltagelse
NAV evaluation by Eirik Lamøy (Arbeid og velferd 1/2025) of Norway's 2016–2022 cap limiting combined uføretrygd and child supplement to 95% of previous income. The rule change, which affected 3,500–4,000 work-assessment-allowance recipients a year in 2016–2018, did not clearly reduce new uføretrygd inflows and showed no sign of increasing work participation.
Temporary wage subsidy: To what extent is stable work attachment achieved?
Original title: Midlertidig lønnstilskudd: I hvilken grad oppnås en stabil arbeidstilknytning?
NAV register-data analysis by Jon Petter Nossen (Arbeid og velferd 3/2024) of people who started Norway's temporary wage subsidy in 2013–2020. 4 in 10 participants achieved stable work attachment within three years, but the share was far lower for participants with reduced work capacity than for ordinary jobseekers (23% vs 54%).
Cost of Exclusion(3)
All pieces →Socio-economic perspectives on women's occupational health
Original title: Samfunnsøkonomiske perspektiver på kvinners arbeidshelse
Vista Analyse report 2025/31 for Norway's Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion. Counting lost production and productivity, deaths, treatment and tax-financing costs, it puts the socio-economic cost of women's work-related ill-health, sickness absence and dropout from work at NOK 59 billion a year; cutting women's sickness absence to men's level would save NOK 19 billion a year.
The country that became too rich: Holte on Norway's spending on illness and disability
Original title: Landet som ble for rikt: Holte om Norges utgifter til sykdom og uførhet
Economist and former Norway chief at McKinsey Martin Bech Holte, author of «Landet som ble for rikt – hvordan Norge endte i oljefondets felle», argues that Norway spends twice as much of gross national product on illness and disability as the country ranked number two.
Targets for a more inclusive working life – status and development trends. Report 2024
Original title: Målene om et mer inkluderende arbeidsliv – status og utviklingstrekk. Rapport 2024
Annual report (June 2024) of the expert group monitoring Norway's Inclusive Working Life (IA) agreement. Work-years lost to health-related benefits rose to 17.1% of the 18–66 population in 2023, up 8.2% since 2018, while sickness absence was 17.5% higher than in 2018. Over 70% of those reaching the maximum sick-pay period move on to work assessment allowance or disability benefit.